January 12-13, 2016 Snowfall Verification Map

snow 1-12 to 13 actual

A few notes on the map itself:

-There were few spotter reports in eastern Ashtabula County and western inland Erie County that were “reliable”…I say this because there were a few spotters that called in for parts of the event but didn’t for others when I knew they got snow. The only good reports in that area were a spotter that had a total of 13″ just NW of Edinboro, along with 11″ from a spotter near Pierpont. Radar overshoots LES badly in Ashtabula/Erie/Crawford so unfortunately I had to do a lot of guessing there based on terrain, surrounding reports and what radar happened to picked up there.

-The only good reports in eastern Cuyahoga County and western Geauga County were a total of 8.8″ in Euclid from a trained spotter…11″ 2.5 miles north of 322 from a veteran weather enthusiast, and 4″ in Newbury/South Russell from two separate veteran weather enthusiasts that I trust. Luckily radar doesn’t overshot LES there so I feel much better about that area, but the lack of reports and sharp cutoff mean I may be a little off. The 8” edge looks jagged in NE Cuyahoga, however, that is supported by radar, as there was a good period where the band absolutely ripped on Euclid but areas immediately southwest weren’t getting good snow, and a period of time earlier on in the evening when the band was farther south where heavier returns were consistently just east of 271. It’s probably not perfect but again, is the best I could do given the data available to me.

As for the forecast, was a little low on max amounts. The band placement in NE Ohio was pretty good compared to forecast, however what I needed to do was extend heavier amounts much closer to lakeshore. It seems like these firehose bands driven by strong convergence are the one type of event that do well all the way down to the shore, so it’s something to keep in mind going forward. That was the biggest thing on my map that I ended up not liking. I did pretty good in Erie County PA but worse in Crawford PA. I’m trying to get better in that area, but I haven’t been able to watch events there on radar for years and years because radar overshoots LES there, so it’s still a process.

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