Category Archives: Uncategorized

Just wanted to throw a few loops from the 12z European ensemble in here…the ensembles are increasingly keying on a pattern featuring a -EPO (Alaskan ridge) and -NAO (Greenland ridge) into the first half of December, though with an initially … Continue reading →

The weather models are running just as quickly and as often as they can. Outputting nothing. Outputting snow. Outputting rain. Back and forth. Life and death. Snip snap! The fingers are typing and posting on Twitter even faster, if that’s … Continue reading →

It’s early, but some scattered thoughts based on some of the looking I’ve done into this winter… Given a La Nina, westerly QBO, climate trends, and majority of long range guidance at this point, a warm winter has to be … Continue reading →

Some nice nocturnal storms at present as a shortwave glances the edge of an EML advecting into the northeast. There’s higher end potential with Wednesday’s action, though uncertainty still exists. It seems like there are two mechanisms to watch for … Continue reading →

I drew this map around 5 PM and this incorporates snow after that, so a bit of this has already fallen. Some reasoning: My thoughts on tonight haven’t changed much…the synoptic snow this evening is not that heavy or efficient, … Continue reading →

With a NE Ohio focus… Suppose I should post this before it starts snowing… With the 850mb low track still near or just west of Sandusky into western Lake Erie, expect the heaviest synoptic snows to fall in NW Ohio. … Continue reading →

The winter of continued failure continues as any promising signals constantly get muted as we try to pull them inside of day 10. In terms of snow from here on out, I think the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and perhaps … Continue reading →

The pattern may not be record cold with a KU threat every 4 days, but there’s some interesting potential over the next two weeks, with 4 things to keep an eye on after this weekend’s sloppy system. Threat 1: Tuesday/Wednesday … Continue reading →

Quick Summary: The very mild pattern that has developed to end December will slowly transition to a colder pattern through the first half of January…however, a positive AO and EPO, with a lobe of the polar vortex settling over Alaska … Continue reading →

This is going to be a long post discussing my analogs that I finally got around to updating along with how the next several weeks may play out…and attempting to tie those things together. We’ll start with the analogs…after weighing … Continue reading →