Category Archives: Pattern Discussion

Jim Sullivan’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook & Write-Up

It’s past November’s midpoint, so I’m clearly late to the party with this more technical write-up on what I think will happen this winter. My thoughts to date have been posted by me at times on weather forums and hinted … Continue reading

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11/14/15 Long Range: Thanksgiving Week Cooldown Idea Gaining Steam

Model images in this post came from: weatherbell.com, tropicaltidbits.com, weather.cod.edu, instantweathermaps.com and the University of Berlin’s Atmospheric Diagnostics website. A brief cool down is occurring in the Northeast US, with some lake effect snow, after another good shot of mild … Continue reading

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1/23/15: Parade of East Coast Storms; Cold Start to February

A large number of the model images used in this post can be found at tropicaltidbits.com It’s been a fairly busy week along the East Coast of the US, with one low pressure system on Sunday bringing disruptive freezing rain … Continue reading

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1/16/15: Cold Will Return After Brief Break; Will Snow Follow?

Several images used are from Tropicaltidbits.com…great site. If you think it’s been cold during the first half of January, you’re correct if you live east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of Florida, essentially all of the central and … Continue reading

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Jim Sullivan’s 2014-2015 Winter Outlook for the US and Southern Canada

For reference, here’s a link to my outlook for 2013-14 (links to past outlooks can be found through there) https://ohwxramblings.wordpress.com/2013/08/21/winter-2013-2014-an-early-look/ Winter 2014-15 outlook maps: Expected temperature departures from normal for December, January, and February (overall, meaning an average of the … Continue reading

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Thanksgiving Day Weather Rundown

Current Pattern: A current look at the upper level pattern over the Northern Hemisphere reveals that ridging persists across a good portion of the central and eastern US. An upper level low remains in place near Iceland, however this upper … Continue reading

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Pattern Shift Beginning to Occur Over North America; What are the Implications?

A current look at the large scale pattern reveals that although the pattern is “zonal,” or flat across much of the US at this time, that heights continue to rise over the Aleutian Islands into the arctic circle. This is … Continue reading

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Quiet Pattern Persists East of Rockies; When Will the Pattern Become Active?

Above is a look at what has quickly become a relatively quiet weather pattern from the Plains east to end the work week. The reasons for this are relatively easy to pin point on the above map: Polar vortex over … Continue reading

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Nor’ Easter Colder and Farther East Than Expected Dropping Major Snows in NYC. What’s Next?

Major pattern changes are occurring over the Northern Hemisphere right now and they will have major implications on the weather pattern to end the month of November. First and foremost: A storm tracked just close enough to the Mid Atlantic … Continue reading

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Another East Coast Storm on the Way?

A current look at the upper level pattern across our hemisphere shows that significant blocking is still occurring, with several of our models developing a significant east coast storm for the middle of next week due to this blocking. Let’s … Continue reading

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