Category Archives: Pattern Discussion

February 11, 2021: A Jaunt Through Our Insanely Active Pattern

There have already been almost too many wintry systems across the central and eastern U.S. since late January to keep track of, including a 20-30”+ whopper of a storm where I’m living in northern New Jersey. And for better or … Continue reading

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Winter Chill Will Stick Around Through February

The pattern coming up is going to feature plenty of cold / Arctic air over North America to tap, along with a continued tendency for blocking over the Atlantic.  A Rossby wave making machine will be in place over the … Continue reading

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Jim Sullivan’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook & Write-Up

It’s past November’s midpoint, so I’m clearly late to the party with this more technical write-up on what I think will happen this winter. My thoughts to date have been posted by me at times on weather forums and hinted … Continue reading

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11/14/15 Long Range: Thanksgiving Week Cooldown Idea Gaining Steam

Model images in this post came from: weatherbell.com, tropicaltidbits.com, weather.cod.edu, instantweathermaps.com and the University of Berlin’s Atmospheric Diagnostics website. A brief cool down is occurring in the Northeast US, with some lake effect snow, after another good shot of mild … Continue reading

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1/23/15: Parade of East Coast Storms; Cold Start to February

A large number of the model images used in this post can be found at tropicaltidbits.com It’s been a fairly busy week along the East Coast of the US, with one low pressure system on Sunday bringing disruptive freezing rain … Continue reading

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1/16/15: Cold Will Return After Brief Break; Will Snow Follow?

Several images used are from Tropicaltidbits.com…great site. If you think it’s been cold during the first half of January, you’re correct if you live east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of Florida, essentially all of the central and … Continue reading

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Jim Sullivan’s 2014-2015 Winter Outlook for the US and Southern Canada

For reference, here’s a link to my outlook for 2013-14 (links to past outlooks can be found through there) https://ohwxramblings.wordpress.com/2013/08/21/winter-2013-2014-an-early-look/ Winter 2014-15 outlook maps: Expected temperature departures from normal for December, January, and February (overall, meaning an average of the … Continue reading

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Thanksgiving Day Weather Rundown

Current Pattern: A current look at the upper level pattern over the Northern Hemisphere reveals that ridging persists across a good portion of the central and eastern US. An upper level low remains in place near Iceland, however this upper … Continue reading

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Pattern Shift Beginning to Occur Over North America; What are the Implications?

A current look at the large scale pattern reveals that although the pattern is “zonal,” or flat across much of the US at this time, that heights continue to rise over the Aleutian Islands into the arctic circle. This is … Continue reading

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Quiet Pattern Persists East of Rockies; When Will the Pattern Become Active?

Above is a look at what has quickly become a relatively quiet weather pattern from the Plains east to end the work week. The reasons for this are relatively easy to pin point on the above map: Polar vortex over … Continue reading

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