Category Archives: Pattern Discussion

Winter 2023-2024 Has Finally Arrived

Posted on January 6, 2024 by jimsullivan92

In late December it was laid out why a substantial pattern change was expected to start January, with increased cold and at least some increase in snow across the U.S. and Canada. However, it was a bit uncertain exactly how … Continue reading →

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Signs of Life for Winter 2023-2024?

Posted on December 26, 2023 by jimsullivan92

Not a surprise in a strong El Nino winter but December 2023 has been a very mild so far, with no significant cold anomalies expected in the continental U.S. (CONUS) the rest of the month to take much of the … Continue reading →

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Early November Warm Spell Not Long for this World

Posted on November 6, 2022 by jimsullivan92

The Key Points Up Front: 1. Any views here are mine and are done for fun, and don’t represent anyone else’s 2. The pattern of “cold west, warm east” continues through most of this week. Cold and fairly active weather … Continue reading →

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An Exploration of Cool ENSO Winters, and a Look at Winter 2021-22

Posted on October 4, 2021 by jimsullivan92

It’s still a little early on in the game, but we’re getting to the point where we can start narrowing down what various “pattern drivers” may look like this winter and examine analogs and even some seasonal forecast guidance for … Continue reading →

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February 11, 2021: A Jaunt Through Our Insanely Active Pattern

Posted on February 12, 2021 by jimsullivan92

There have already been almost too many wintry systems across the central and eastern U.S. since late January to keep track of, including a 20-30”+ whopper of a storm where I’m living in northern New Jersey. And for better or … Continue reading →

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Winter Chill Will Stick Around Through February

Posted on February 4, 2021 by jimsullivan92

The pattern coming up is going to feature plenty of cold / Arctic air over North America to tap, along with a continued tendency for blocking over the Atlantic.  A Rossby wave making machine will be in place over the … Continue reading →

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Jim Sullivan’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook & Write-Up

Posted on November 21, 2020 by jimsullivan92

It’s past November’s midpoint, so I’m clearly late to the party with this more technical write-up on what I think will happen this winter. My thoughts to date have been posted by me at times on weather forums and hinted … Continue reading →

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11/14/15 Long Range: Thanksgiving Week Cooldown Idea Gaining Steam

Posted on November 14, 2015 by jimsullivan92

Model images in this post came from: weatherbell.com, tropicaltidbits.com, weather.cod.edu, instantweathermaps.com and the University of Berlin’s Atmospheric Diagnostics website. A brief cool down is occurring in the Northeast US, with some lake effect snow, after another good shot of mild … Continue reading →

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1/23/15: Parade of East Coast Storms; Cold Start to February

Posted on January 23, 2015 by jimsullivan92

A large number of the model images used in this post can be found at tropicaltidbits.com It’s been a fairly busy week along the East Coast of the US, with one low pressure system on Sunday bringing disruptive freezing rain … Continue reading →

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1/16/15: Cold Will Return After Brief Break; Will Snow Follow?

Posted on January 17, 2015 by jimsullivan92

Several images used are from Tropicaltidbits.com…great site. If you think it’s been cold during the first half of January, you’re correct if you live east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of Florida, essentially all of the central and … Continue reading →

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