Author Archives: jimsullivan92

February 11, 2021: A Jaunt Through Our Insanely Active Pattern

There have already been almost too many wintry systems across the central and eastern U.S. since late January to keep track of, including a 20-30”+ whopper of a storm where I’m living in northern New Jersey. And for better or … Continue reading

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Winter Chill Will Stick Around Through February

The pattern coming up is going to feature plenty of cold / Arctic air over North America to tap, along with a continued tendency for blocking over the Atlantic.  A Rossby wave making machine will be in place over the … Continue reading

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Sizing up the January 31 – February 2 Storm Potential

I think it’s safe to say “here we go” for Sunday – Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast! The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New England and SE Canada, and ridging … Continue reading

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12/10/2020: But Actually: Four Systems to Watch on the East Coast Next Week

The weather models are running just as quickly and as often as they can. Outputting nothing. Outputting snow. Outputting rain. Back and forth. Life and death. Snip snap! The fingers are typing and posting on Twitter even faster, if that’s … Continue reading

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Jim Sullivan’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook & Write-Up

It’s past November’s midpoint, so I’m clearly late to the party with this more technical write-up on what I think will happen this winter. My thoughts to date have been posted by me at times on weather forums and hinted … Continue reading

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Spitballing Some Analogs / Considerations for Winter 2020-2021

It’s early, but some scattered thoughts based on some of the looking I’ve done into this winter… Given a La Nina, westerly QBO, climate trends, and majority of long range guidance at this point, a warm winter has to be … Continue reading

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Late Night Scribbles on June 3rd Mid Atlantic Severe Threat

Some nice nocturnal storms at present as a shortwave glances the edge of an EML advecting into the northeast. There’s higher end potential with Wednesday’s action, though uncertainty still exists. It seems like there are two mechanisms to watch for … Continue reading

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Some Refined Thoughts for NE Ohio

I drew this map around 5 PM and this incorporates snow after that, so a bit of this has already fallen. Some reasoning: My thoughts on tonight haven’t changed much…the synoptic snow this evening is not that heavy or efficient, … Continue reading

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Some Ohio Snow Scribbles

With a NE Ohio focus… Suppose I should post this before it starts snowing… With the 850mb low track still near or just west of Sandusky into western Lake Erie, expect the heaviest synoptic snows to fall in NW Ohio. … Continue reading

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Random Scribbles as Winter 2019-20 Continues to Flail Away

The winter of continued failure continues as any promising signals constantly get muted as we try to pull them inside of day 10. In terms of snow from here on out, I think the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and perhaps … Continue reading

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