Author Archives: jimsullivan92

Jim Sullivan’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook & Write-Up

It’s past November’s midpoint, so I’m clearly late to the party with this more technical write-up on what I think will happen this winter. My thoughts to date have been posted by me at times on weather forums and hinted … Continue reading

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Spitballing Some Analogs / Considerations for Winter 2020-2021

It’s early, but some scattered thoughts based on some of the looking I’ve done into this winter… Given a La Nina, westerly QBO, climate trends, and majority of long range guidance at this point, a warm winter has to be … Continue reading

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Late Night Scribbles on June 3rd Mid Atlantic Severe Threat

Some nice nocturnal storms at present as a shortwave glances the edge of an EML advecting into the northeast. There’s higher end potential with Wednesday’s action, though uncertainty still exists. It seems like there are two mechanisms to watch for … Continue reading

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Some Refined Thoughts for NE Ohio

I drew this map around 5 PM and this incorporates snow after that, so a bit of this has already fallen. Some reasoning: My thoughts on tonight haven’t changed much…the synoptic snow this evening is not that heavy or efficient, … Continue reading

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Some Ohio Snow Scribbles

With a NE Ohio focus… Suppose I should post this before it starts snowing… With the 850mb low track still near or just west of Sandusky into western Lake Erie, expect the heaviest synoptic snows to fall in NW Ohio. … Continue reading

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Random Scribbles as Winter 2019-20 Continues to Flail Away

The winter of continued failure continues as any promising signals constantly get muted as we try to pull them inside of day 10. In terms of snow from here on out, I think the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and perhaps … Continue reading

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Active Sub-Tropical Jet Brings Interesting Snow Potential Late January

The pattern may not be record cold with a KU threat every 4 days, but there’s some interesting potential over the next two weeks, with 4 things to keep an eye on after this weekend’s sloppy system. Threat 1: Tuesday/Wednesday … Continue reading

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Technical Long Range Discussion: Gradual Cooler Trend early-mid January

Quick Summary: The very mild pattern that has developed to end December will slowly transition to a colder pattern through the first half of January…however, a positive AO and EPO, with a lobe of the polar vortex settling over Alaska … Continue reading

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Technical Discussion: Trending Mild for December; Big Cold Looming for January and February?

This is going to be a long post discussing my analogs that I finally got around to updating along with how the next several weeks may play out…and attempting to tie those things together. We’ll start with the analogs…after weighing … Continue reading

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November 20, 2019: Quick Thoughts on Next Few Weeks

A few quick thoughts here on the next 3ish weeks. After a pre-Thanksgiving cutter that will bring a warm-up to the Eastern U.S., what happens to open December seems to be up for debate. The ensembles agree on the potential … Continue reading

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