Author Archives: jimsullivan92

Quick Thanksgiving Thoughts: Seeds of a Chilly December?

Posted on November 24, 2022 by jimsullivan92

Just wanted to throw a few loops from the 12z European ensemble in here…the ensembles are increasingly keying on a pattern featuring a -EPO (Alaskan ridge) and -NAO (Greenland ridge) into the first half of December, though with an initially … Continue reading →

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Early November Warm Spell Not Long for this World

Posted on November 6, 2022 by jimsullivan92

The Key Points Up Front: 1. Any views here are mine and are done for fun, and don’t represent anyone else’s 2. The pattern of “cold west, warm east” continues through most of this week. Cold and fairly active weather … Continue reading →

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An Exploration of Cool ENSO Winters, and a Look at Winter 2021-22

Posted on October 4, 2021 by jimsullivan92

It’s still a little early on in the game, but we’re getting to the point where we can start narrowing down what various “pattern drivers” may look like this winter and examine analogs and even some seasonal forecast guidance for … Continue reading →

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February 11, 2021: A Jaunt Through Our Insanely Active Pattern

Posted on February 12, 2021 by jimsullivan92

There have already been almost too many wintry systems across the central and eastern U.S. since late January to keep track of, including a 20-30”+ whopper of a storm where I’m living in northern New Jersey. And for better or … Continue reading →

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Winter Chill Will Stick Around Through February

Posted on February 4, 2021 by jimsullivan92

The pattern coming up is going to feature plenty of cold / Arctic air over North America to tap, along with a continued tendency for blocking over the Atlantic.  A Rossby wave making machine will be in place over the … Continue reading →

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Sizing up the January 31 – February 2 Storm Potential

Posted on January 26, 2021 by jimsullivan92

I think it’s safe to say “here we go” for Sunday – Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast! The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New England and SE Canada, and ridging … Continue reading →

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12/10/2020: But Actually: Four Systems to Watch on the East Coast Next Week

Posted on December 10, 2020 by jimsullivan92

The weather models are running just as quickly and as often as they can. Outputting nothing. Outputting snow. Outputting rain. Back and forth. Life and death. Snip snap! The fingers are typing and posting on Twitter even faster, if that’s … Continue reading →

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Jim Sullivan’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook & Write-Up

Posted on November 21, 2020 by jimsullivan92

It’s past November’s midpoint, so I’m clearly late to the party with this more technical write-up on what I think will happen this winter. My thoughts to date have been posted by me at times on weather forums and hinted … Continue reading →

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Spitballing Some Analogs / Considerations for Winter 2020-2021

Posted on September 29, 2020 by jimsullivan92

It’s early, but some scattered thoughts based on some of the looking I’ve done into this winter… Given a La Nina, westerly QBO, climate trends, and majority of long range guidance at this point, a warm winter has to be … Continue reading →

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Late Night Scribbles on June 3rd Mid Atlantic Severe Threat

Posted on June 3, 2020 by jimsullivan92

Some nice nocturnal storms at present as a shortwave glances the edge of an EML advecting into the northeast. There’s higher end potential with Wednesday’s action, though uncertainty still exists. It seems like there are two mechanisms to watch for … Continue reading →

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