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Author Archives: jimsullivan92
11/12/14: First Lake Effect in NE Ohio Thursday-Friday, Locally Heavy
November 13-14, 2014 Lake Effect Event The first of hopefully many this winter…and hopefully not my first ill-fated forecast. Brief summary: Tough forecast due to questions about snow band organization/location and due to marginal temps in lower elevations, especially closer … Continue reading
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11/11/14: Heavy Lake Effect Looking Increasingly Possible Thursday-Friday East of Cleveland
Brief description: We are still a couple days away from any potential event and some things may change, however this type of scenario has been shown consistently since Friday night in most of our forecast computer models, which gives me … Continue reading
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11/8/14: Winter Storm Coming for Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes
A large corridor of winter storm watches and warnings and winter weather advisories has been issued from Montana and the higher elevations of Wyoming east across parts of South Dakota, North Dakota, central and southern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and … Continue reading
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11/8/14 AM Update: Weather Pattern Supports Possible Snow in East Late Week or Weekend, Questions if Pattern Will Deliver
WOW. The first image, showing this Friday afternoon’s European ensemble upper level weather pattern (500mb level) for next Friday is a classic cold pattern with extreme “blocking” in the high latitudes. A low south of the Aleutian Islands is pumping … Continue reading
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11/6/14: Big Cold Next Week, Possible Storm Monday/Tuesday in Midwest/Great Lakes
The much anticipated blast of cold air is starting to arrive today across parts of the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes, and will spill east into the Northeast to start the weekend. A bigger blast will arrive next week, and … Continue reading
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11/4/14: Signal for Big Early Season Chill Still Looks Good
On November 2nd, I commented (on Facebook) that there was a strengthening signal for a period of unseasonably cold weather across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeastern US starting late this week and persisting for at least two … Continue reading
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Jim Sullivan’s 2014-2015 Winter Outlook for the US and Southern Canada
For reference, here’s a link to my outlook for 2013-14 (links to past outlooks can be found through there) https://ohwxramblings.wordpress.com/2013/08/21/winter-2013-2014-an-early-look/ Winter 2014-15 outlook maps: Expected temperature departures from normal for December, January, and February (overall, meaning an average of the … Continue reading
Posted in Pattern Discussion
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Arthur Will Impact Carolinas as a Hurricane Thursday and Friday; Potential Graze Job for New England
The thoughts in this blog are mine and shouldn’t be used to make any important decisions. You can find official forecasts from the hurricane center, along with watch/warning info, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov Tropical Storm Arthur has continued to gradually intensify on … Continue reading
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Arthur Likely to Become a Hurricane off Southeastern US Coastline
In yesterday’s post about (then) Invest 91L, I discussed what would need to occur for what is now known as Tropical Storm Arthur to potentially intensify to hurricane intensity later this week. It is looking very likely that this will … Continue reading
Posted in Storm Forecasts
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Invest 91L is Likely to Develop Into a Tropical Cyclone off the Florida Coastline
The Tropics appear to be “heating up” in the North Atlantic and I have a few moments of free time, so let’s chat…these thoughts are just mine and shouldn’t be considered official or used for any important decisions… A non-tropical … Continue reading
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